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News
The General Administration of Customs, according to data released on March 8th unexpectedly declined 18.1% on Chinese exports in February, far less than the expected growth of 6.8%, its biggest year-on-year decline since 4 years. In contrast, imports rose 10.1%, higher than expected, lead to a rare occurrence that month $22.98 billion trade deficit with China. However, many foreign banks’ investment department said, the export situation was not as bad as the data reflect.
Barclays’ chief economics in China--- Chang jian thought holiday distortion, illusion of false trade and weak demand were the three major factors to the decline in exports. First of all, the lunar New Year holiday caused strong export growth in January and February; Second, the inflated transaction report in March last year reached the top, causing a sharp contrast base, the recent depreciation of RMB, may also affected related trade activities about hot money, brought a further drag on exports year-on-year growth; Third, external demand is likely to remain weak, PMI export orders remain falling for three consecutive months, the ISM new orders relative to the weak of inventory, as well as the south Korean exports slowed confirms it.
So China's export is not as bad as it seems.